DOTA2PREDICT uses multiple independent models to estimate the outcome of professional Dota 2 matches. Each model weighs different signals — from pure skill ratings to recent form and head-to-head history. No single model is perfect, but together they give a well-rounded view of every matchup.

How predictions are generated

When a professional match is scheduled, the engine automatically:

1. Identifies both teams and their current rosters from OpenDota.
2. Loads rating history — each team's Elo, recent results, and form trend.
3. Computes match features — Elo gap, momentum, head-to-head record, tournament tier and format (Bo1/Bo3/Bo5).
4. Runs every model — each outputs a win probability (e.g. "Team A 63%").
5. Publishes the consensus — the ensemble pick + per-model breakdown, refreshed as new data arrives.

Model families

Elo family	Skill-based ratings updated after every completed pro match. Winners gain rating, losers drop; the size of the move scales with the rating gap.
Form & H2H	Combine recent results, win streaks, and direct head-to-head history between the two teams.
Ensemble	Blend the above signals into a single consensus probability — the headline pick shown on each match.

What happens after a match

Results are pulled from OpenDota and reconciled automatically. When a match completes:

• Each model's prediction is scored correct or incorrect.
• Team Elo ratings update based on the result.
• Model accuracy on the models leaderboard updates.
• All upcoming matches are re-predicted with the new ratings.

Match tiers

Matches are grouped by tournament tier, which sets how much weight predictions carry:

• Premium — The International, Majors, and top DPC-tier events. Richest data, best accuracy.
• Professional — regional leagues and qualifiers.
• Amateur / Other — lower-tier and unranked matches. Shown as a schedule; model output is muted because accuracy drops toward a coin-flip.

The prediction pool

Predictions on DOTA2PREDICT use a pari-mutuel pool, not fixed bookmaker odds. Everyone who predicts a match puts into a shared pool. When the match settles, winners split the whole pool in proportion to their stake, minus a flat 5% commission — there is no bookmaker margin baked into the odds. Live odds shown on a match are derived from the current split of the pool and move as more predictions come in.

Because the pool is shared across DOTA2PREDICT and its sister site, your balance and deposits work the same everywhere — but your Dota predictions are tracked separately from any CS2 activity.

Data source

Match schedules, results, rosters, and player data come from OpenDota — an open data platform for professional Dota 2. Data refreshes continuously for live and upcoming matches.

Predictions are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.