Elo HQ
High-confidence Elo: smaller K-factor, scale=2000 — slow learner.
All-time accuracy
63.0%
75 / 119 settled
Last 50
64.0%
sliding window
Last 10
80.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.237
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.667
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$474.19 across 210 bets. ROI = +22.58%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 118 | 62.7% (74/118) | |
| 60–70% | 1 | 100.0% (1/1) | |
| 70–80% | 0 | — | |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLCN vs LGD | FLCN 55% | 1.00 | |
| BB vs OG | BB 53% | 0.10 | |
| VSN vs Resilience | VSN 53% | 0.40 | |
| NGX vs IW | NGX 59% | 0.48 | |
| TSpirit vs XG | TSpirit 57% | 0.84 | |
| Liquid vs VG | Liquid 52% | 1.00 | |
| Aurora vs GL | Aurora 55% | 0.70 | |
| TY vs HU | TY 59% | 0.42 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | FLCN vs LGD | FLCN 55% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | BB vs OG | BB 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | VSN vs Resilience | VSN 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | NGX vs IW | NGX 59% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | TSpirit vs XG | TSpirit 57% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | Liquid vs VG | Liquid 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | Aurora vs GL | Aurora 55% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | TY vs HU | TY 59% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | RE vs LevelUP | RE 51% | pending | — |
| Aug 11 | lvlUP vs SpiritAc | lvlUP 59% | lvlUP | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | Z10 vs YeS | Z10 55% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | SpiritAc vs NH | SpiritAc 54% | SpiritAc | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | Z10 vs YeS | Z10 54% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | MOUZ vs RE | RE 51% | RE | coin-flip |
| Aug 11 | IW vs NGX | NGX 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 11 | MOUZ vs RE | RE 51% | MOUZ | coin-flip |
| Aug 11 | LevelUP vs NAVI | LevelUP 52% | NAVI | coin-flip |
| Aug 11 | Vitality Wa… vs FLYING FORT… | Vitality Warriors 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 10 | YeS vs LevelUP | LevelUP 51% | LevelUP | coin-flip |
| Aug 10 | LYNX vs RE`Arise | LYNX 50% | RE`Arise | coin-flip |
| Aug 10 | YeS vs LevelUP | YeS 50% | LevelUP | coin-flip |
| Aug 10 | YeS vs LevelUP | LevelUP 51% | YeS | coin-flip |
| Aug 10 | Z10 vs Ilbirs | Z10 54% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 10 | Z10 vs Ilbirs | Z10 53% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 10 | PR vs MOUZ | PR 56% | MOUZ | ✗ miss |
| Aug 10 | PR vs MOUZ | PR 58% | PR | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 10 | LV United vs Dark Rebell… | Dark Rebellion 51% | pending | — |
| Aug 10 | Dominion vs Elite Eclip… | Dominion 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 09 | RE`Arise vs Ilbirs | RE`Arise 51% | RE`Arise | coin-flip |
| Aug 09 | SpiritAc vs lvlUP | lvlUP 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 09 | Z10 vs NAVI | Z10 54% | NAVI | ✗ miss |
| Aug 09 | RE vs Ilbirs | RE 51% | RE | coin-flip |
| Aug 09 | NH vs FTS | NH 51% | pending | — |
| Aug 09 | LevelUP vs MOUZ | LevelUP 59% | LevelUP | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 09 | MOUZ vs LevelUP | LevelUP 56% | LevelUP | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 09 | YeS vs PR | YeS 50% | YeS | coin-flip |
| Aug 09 | PR vs YeS | PR 54% | YeS | ✗ miss |
| Aug 09 | YeS vs PR | PR 50% | PR | coin-flip |
| Aug 09 | Riftwalkers vs Wiser Warri… | Riftwalkers 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | lvlUP vs LYNX | lvlUP 58% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | AMG vs Jenz | AMG 55% | AMG | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | Jenz vs AMG | AMG 52% | AMG | coin-flip |
| Aug 08 | Jenz vs Ilbirs | Ilbirs 56% | Ilbirs | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | FTS vs PC | PC 51% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | Jenz vs Ilbirs | Ilbirs 55% | Ilbirs | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | Ilbirs vs NH | Ilbirs 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | PR vs Team Synapse | PR 54% | PR | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 07 | PC vs LYNX | PC 51% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | Nemiga vs Jenz | Jenz 50% | Nemiga | coin-flip |
| Aug 07 | Jenz vs Nemiga | Jenz 54% | Nemiga | ✗ miss |
| Aug 07 | PR vs Jenz | Jenz 52% | PR | coin-flip |
| Aug 07 | RE`Arise vs SpiritAc | RE`Arise 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | Jenz vs PR | Jenz 56% | PR | ✗ miss |
| Aug 07 | Team Syntax vs Ilbirs | Team Syntax 52% | Ilbirs | coin-flip |
| Aug 07 | Team Syntax vs Ilbirs | Team Syntax 54% | Ilbirs | ✗ miss |
| Aug 07 | RE`Arise vs SpiritAc | RE`Arise 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | PC vs LYNX | PC 51% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | Ilbirs vs NH | Ilbirs 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | NH vs Z10 | Z10 53% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 06 | FTS vs Team Syntax | Team Syntax 52% | pending | — |