Elo HQ
High-confidence Elo: smaller K-factor, scale=2000 — slow learner.
All-time accuracy
92.3%
12 / 13 settled
Last 50
92.3%
sliding window
Last 10
100.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.197
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.584
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$71.04 across 17 bets. ROI = +41.79%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 0 | — | |
| 60–70% | 13 | 92.3% (12/13) | |
| 70–80% | 0 | — | |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Synapse vs YeS | Synapse 53% | 0.76 | |
| LEGION vs MOUZ | MOUZ 51% | 0.06 | |
| LGD vs TSpirit | TSpirit 58% | 1.00 | |
| TY vs LGD | TY 58% | 0.58 | |
| Aurora vs 1w | Aurora 55% | 1.00 | |
| Aurora vs IW | Aurora 56% | 0.90 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 06 | Shinigami G… vs Eye Gaming | Shinigami Gaming 51% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | Synapse vs YeS | Synapse 53% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | LEGION vs MOUZ | MOUZ 51% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | LGD vs TSpirit | TSpirit 58% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | TY vs LGD | TY 58% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | Aurora vs 1w | Aurora 55% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | Aurora vs IW | Aurora 56% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | Bbl vs Nemiga | Bbl 55% | Bbl | coin-flip |
| Oct 06 | Bbl vs Nemiga | Bbl 55% | Bbl | coin-flip |
| Oct 06 | Nemiga vs Bbl | Bbl 50% | Bbl | coin-flip |
| Oct 06 | CHero vs HU | CHero 56% | CHero | coin-flip |
| Oct 06 | Xipto vs Db | Xipto 56% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | HU vs CHero | CHero 51% | CHero | coin-flip |
| Oct 06 | CHero vs HU | CHero 52% | CHero | coin-flip |
| Oct 05 | MOUZ vs Nemiga | MOUZ 58% | MOUZ | coin-flip |
| Oct 05 | LEGION vs Bbl | LEGION 54% | LEGION | coin-flip |
| Oct 05 | MOUZ vs Nemiga | MOUZ 58% | MOUZ | coin-flip |
| Oct 05 | LEGION vs Bbl | LEGION 52% | LEGION | coin-flip |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs Z10 | Synapse 59% | pending | — |
| Oct 05 | Bbl vs LEGION | Bbl 54% | LEGION | coin-flip |
| Oct 05 | YeS vs CHero | YeS 55% | YeS | coin-flip |
| Oct 05 | YeS vs CHero | YeS 55% | YeS | coin-flip |
| Oct 05 | Db vs CD | Db 54% | pending | — |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs HU | Synapse 59% | Synapse | coin-flip |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs HU | Synapse 58% | Synapse | coin-flip |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs HU | Synapse 57% | Synapse | coin-flip |
| Oct 04 | Z10 vs Hokori | Z10 60% | pending | — |
| Oct 03 | IW vs OG | IW 50% | pending | — |
| Oct 03 | TSpirit vs TY | TSpirit 51% | TY | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | TSpirit vs TY | TSpirit 52% | TSpirit | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | daxao vs Cake | daxao 51% | Cake | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | TY vs TSpirit | TY 51% | TY | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | daxao vs Cake | daxao 52% | Cake | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | LGD vs GL | LGD 53% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | OG vs 1w | OG 53% | OG | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | LGD vs GL | LGD 53% | GL | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | PV vs Aurora | PV 59% | PV | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | OG vs 1w | OG 51% | 1w | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | GL vs LGD | LGD 51% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | daxao vs Cake | daxao 52% | daxao | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | PV vs Aurora | PV 58% | PV | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | LGD vs GL | LGD 54% | GL | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | Aurora vs PV | PV 55% | PV | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | Db vs Ivory | Db 50% | pending | — |
| Oct 03 | Rostik vs Cake | Cake 50% | Cake | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | OG vs BB | OG 50% | pending | — |
| Oct 02 | OG vs BETBOOM | BETBOOM 51% | BETBOOM | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | NMSS vs IW | NMSS 55% | pending | — |
| Oct 02 | OG vs BETBOOM | BETBOOM 51% | BETBOOM | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | GL vs Liquid | GL 51% | GL | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | Liquid vs GL | Liquid 53% | GL | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | LGD vs XG | LGD 55% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | NMSS vs 1w | NMSS 55% | 1w | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | NMSS vs 1w | NMSS 55% | 1w | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | XG vs LGD | LGD 51% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | LGD vs XG | LGD 53% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | NMSS vs 1w | NMSS 55% | 1w | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | Dominion vs Eye Gaming | Dominion 57% | pending | — |
| Oct 01 | Hokori vs Synapse | Synapse 63% | pending | — |
| Oct 01 | TY vs BB | TY 60% | pending | — |