Oracle

Conservative: Elo HQ dampened when streaks disagree.

78.6%

11 / 14 settled

78.6%

sliding window

70.0%

most recent

0.199

lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)

0.588

lower = better

Simulated bankroll

If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$45.68 across 14 bets. ROI = +32.63%.

When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.

Confidence range	Picks	Accuracy
50–60%	8	62.5% (5/8)
60–70%	6	100.0% (6/6)
70–80%	0	—
80–90%	0	—
90–101%	0	—

When	Match	This model picks	Confidence
	EB vs TeamDk	EB 57%	0.20

When	Match	Pick	Outcome	Result
Jun 28	EB vs TeamDk	EB 57%	pending	—
Jun 28	TeamDk vs Hokori	TeamDk 51%	pending	—
Jun 27	PR vs YeS	YeS 53%	YeS	✓ HIT
Jun 27	Resilience vs YB	Resilience 62%	Resilience	✓ HIT
Jun 27	YB vs VG	VG 52%	VG	coin-flip
Jun 27	AMG vs EB	AMG 51%	AMG	coin-flip
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 63%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 63%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 63%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	NMSS vs AMG	NMSS 57%	AMG	✗ miss
Jun 27	NMSS vs AMG	NMSS 57%	AMG	✗ miss
Jun 27	NMSS vs AMG	NMSS 57%	AMG	✗ miss
Jun 27	PlayTime vs AMG	PlayTime 53%	PlayTime	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 63%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 63%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	MOUZ vs YeS	YeS 55%	YeS	✓ HIT
Jun 27	EB vs x5	EB 63%	pending	—
Jun 27	x5 vs AMG	AMG 58%	pending	—
Jun 27	EB vs AMG	EB 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	EB vs AMG	EB 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	EB vs AMG	EB 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	NAVI vs MOUZ	NAVI 59%	NAVI	✓ HIT
Jun 27	NAVI vs MOUZ	NAVI 59%	NAVI	✓ HIT
Jun 27	TeamDk vs EB	EB 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	TeamDk vs EB	EB 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	TeamDk vs EB	EB 53%	pending	—