Patch-Aware

Elo with patch-boundary decay — stale form loses weight after Valve patches.

76.9%

10 / 13 settled

76.9%

sliding window

70.0%

most recent

0.189

lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)

0.567

lower = better

Simulated bankroll

If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$27.60 across 13 bets. ROI = +21.23%.

When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.

Confidence range	Picks	Accuracy
50–60%	2	100.0% (2/2)
60–70%	11	72.7% (8/11)
70–80%	0	—
80–90%	0	—
90–101%	0	—

When	Match	This model picks	Confidence
	EB vs TeamDk	EB 60%	0.27

When	Match	Pick	Outcome	Result
Jun 28	EB vs TeamDk	EB 60%	pending	—
Jun 28	TeamDk vs Hokori	TeamDk 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	PR vs YeS	YeS 52%	YeS	coin-flip
Jun 27	Resilience vs YB	Resilience 65%	Resilience	✓ HIT
Jun 27	YB vs VG	VG 50%	VG	coin-flip
Jun 27	AMG vs EB	AMG 52%	AMG	coin-flip
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 67%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 67%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 67%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	NMSS vs AMG	NMSS 61%	AMG	✗ miss
Jun 27	NMSS vs AMG	NMSS 61%	AMG	✗ miss
Jun 27	NMSS vs AMG	NMSS 61%	AMG	✗ miss
Jun 27	PlayTime vs AMG	PlayTime 56%	PlayTime	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 67%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 67%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	MOUZ vs YeS	YeS 56%	YeS	✓ HIT
Jun 27	EB vs x5	EB 70%	pending	—
Jun 27	x5 vs AMG	AMG 62%	pending	—
Jun 27	EB vs AMG	EB 55%	pending	—
Jun 27	EB vs AMG	EB 55%	pending	—
Jun 27	EB vs AMG	EB 55%	pending	—
Jun 27	NAVI vs MOUZ	NAVI 63%	NAVI	✓ HIT
Jun 27	NAVI vs MOUZ	NAVI 63%	NAVI	✓ HIT
Jun 27	TeamDk vs EB	EB 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	TeamDk vs EB	EB 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	TeamDk vs EB	EB 53%	pending	—