Patch-Aware
Elo with patch-boundary decay — stale form loses weight after Valve patches.
All-time accuracy
68.8%
358 / 520 settled
Last 50
64.0%
sliding window
Last 10
80.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.215
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.621
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$235.42 across 596 bets. ROI = +3.95%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 0 | — | |
| 60–70% | 394 | 65.0% (256/394) | |
| 70–80% | 121 | 80.2% (97/121) | |
| 80–90% | 5 | 100.0% (5/5) | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Z10 vs Angry | Z10 52% | 0.12 | |
| oblood vs Xipto | Xipto 68% | 0.18 | |
| Angry vs Z10 | Angry 55% | 0.12 | |
| Nemiga vs PR | Nemiga 57% | 0.90 | |
| GL vs Aurora | GL 51% | 0.90 | |
| Synapse vs PR | Synapse 64% | 0.90 | |
| potn9k vs Synapse | Synapse 62% | 0.54 | |
| Synapse vs Nemiga | Synapse 61% | 0.90 | |
| SpiritAc vs ICxI | ICxI 54% | 0.90 | |
| NH vs oveA | oveA 54% | 0.21 | |
| TSpirit vs 1w | TSpirit 78% | 0.90 | |
| GL vs CyberHero | GL 56% | 0.90 | |
| PlayTime vs HU | HU 51% | 0.78 | |
| PV vs YeS | PV 70% | 0.15 | |
| 4iki vs SpiritAc | 4iki 63% | 0.27 | |
| FL vs PC | FL 77% | 0.51 | |
| LGD vs Liquid | LGD 55% | 0.90 | |
| ICxI vs Allied | ICxI 59% | 0.06 | |
| CyberHero vs Xipto | Xipto 50% | 0.90 | |
| TSpirit vs FL | TSpirit 72% | 0.51 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | XctN vs CR | XctN 59% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | Z10 vs Angry | Z10 52% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | oblood vs Xipto | Xipto 68% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | Angry vs Z10 | Angry 55% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | Nemiga vs PR | Nemiga 57% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | GL vs Aurora | GL 51% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | Synapse vs PR | Synapse 64% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | potn9k vs Synapse | Synapse 62% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | Synapse vs Nemiga | Synapse 61% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | SpiritAc vs ICxI | ICxI 54% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | NH vs oveA | oveA 54% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | TSpirit vs 1w | TSpirit 78% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | GL vs CyberHero | GL 56% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | PlayTime vs HU | HU 51% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | PV vs YeS | PV 70% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | 4iki vs SpiritAc | 4iki 63% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | FL vs PC | FL 77% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | LGD vs Liquid | LGD 55% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | ICxI vs Allied | ICxI 59% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | CyberHero vs Xipto | Xipto 50% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | TSpirit vs FL | TSpirit 72% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | LGD vs LEGION | LGD 67% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | SpiritAc vs Z10 | SpiritAc 53% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | ICxI vs Angry | ICxI 58% | pending | — |
| Nov 12 | Liquid vs LEGION | Liquid 66% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | potn9k vs PR | potn9k 51% | PR | coin-flip |
| Nov 11 | CyberHero vs Xipto | Xipto 50% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | FL vs PC | FL 76% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | PlayTime vs PC | PlayTime 71% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | 1w vs TSpirit | TSpirit 73% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | FL vs TSpirit | TSpirit 67% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | FL vs 1w | FL 61% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | Aurora vs GL | Aurora 56% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | CyberHero vs Aurora | Aurora 52% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | FL vs Nemiga | FL 66% | FL | ✓ HIT |
| Nov 11 | potn9k vs PR | potn9k 51% | PR | coin-flip |
| Nov 11 | PlayTime vs YeS | PlayTime 54% | YeS | coin-flip |
| Nov 11 | FL vs Nemiga | FL 64% | FL | ✓ HIT |
| Nov 11 | potn9k vs Zenith | potn9k 50% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | Liquid vs LGD | Liquid 53% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | Aurora vs CyberHero | Aurora 59% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | TSpirit vs 1w | TSpirit 78% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | Xipto vs FL | Xipto 59% | FL | coin-flip |
| Nov 11 | CyberHero vs Z10 | CyberHero 61% | Z10 | ✗ miss |
| Nov 11 | PlayTime vs YeS | PlayTime 54% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | FL vs Xipto | Xipto 56% | FL | coin-flip |
| Nov 11 | CyberHero vs Z10 | CyberHero 68% | CyberHero | ✓ HIT |
| Nov 11 | CyberHero vs Z10 | CyberHero 67% | CyberHero | ✓ HIT |
| Nov 11 | PlayTime vs Zenith | PlayTime 59% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | PT vs Zenith | PT 73% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | PR vs Angry | PR 51% | Angry | coin-flip |
| Nov 11 | Z10 vs CyberHero | CyberHero 53% | CyberHero | coin-flip |
| Nov 11 | LGD vs LEGION | LGD 67% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | Liquid vs LEGION | Liquid 66% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | Xipto vs FL | Xipto 63% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | CyberHero vs Z10 | CyberHero 67% | pending | — |
| Nov 11 | AMG vs IAP | AMG 59% | IAP | coin-flip |
| Nov 11 | PC vs HU | HU 66% | HU | ✓ HIT |
| Nov 11 | FL vs CyberHero | FL 52% | CyberHero | coin-flip |
| Nov 11 | IAP vs AMG | AMG 50% | AMG | coin-flip |