Patch-Aware
Elo with patch-boundary decay — stale form loses weight after Valve patches.
All-time accuracy
61.3%
92 / 150 settled
Last 50
64.0%
sliding window
Last 10
70.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.231
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.655
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$157.84 across 272 bets. ROI = +5.80%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 85 | 55.3% (47/85) | |
| 60–70% | 58 | 70.7% (41/58) | |
| 70–80% | 7 | 57.1% (4/7) | |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLCN vs LGD | FLCN 62% | 0.90 | |
| BB vs OG | BB 59% | 0.15 | |
| VSN vs Resilience | VSN 57% | 0.60 | |
| NGX vs IW | NGX 71% | 0.72 | |
| TSpirit vs XG | TSpirit 66% | 0.90 | |
| Liquid vs VG | Liquid 56% | 0.90 | |
| Aurora vs GL | Aurora 63% | 0.90 | |
| TY vs HU | TY 72% | 0.63 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | FLCN vs LGD | FLCN 62% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | BB vs OG | BB 59% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | VSN vs Resilience | VSN 57% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | NGX vs IW | NGX 71% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | TSpirit vs XG | TSpirit 66% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | Liquid vs VG | Liquid 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | Aurora vs GL | Aurora 63% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | TY vs HU | TY 72% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | RE vs LevelUP | RE 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 11 | lvlUP vs SpiritAc | lvlUP 70% | lvlUP | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | Z10 vs YeS | Z10 61% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | SpiritAc vs NH | SpiritAc 59% | SpiritAc | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | Z10 vs YeS | Z10 59% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | MOUZ vs RE | RE 53% | RE | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | IW vs NGX | NGX 65% | pending | — |
| Aug 11 | MOUZ vs RE | RE 53% | MOUZ | ✗ miss |
| Aug 11 | LevelUP vs NAVI | LevelUP 54% | NAVI | ✗ miss |
| Aug 11 | Vitality Wa… vs FLYING FORT… | Vitality Warriors 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 10 | YeS vs LevelUP | LevelUP 52% | LevelUP | coin-flip |
| Aug 10 | LYNX vs RE`Arise | LYNX 51% | RE`Arise | coin-flip |
| Aug 10 | YeS vs LevelUP | YeS 51% | LevelUP | coin-flip |
| Aug 10 | YeS vs LevelUP | LevelUP 52% | YeS | ✗ miss |
| Aug 10 | Z10 vs Ilbirs | Z10 60% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 10 | Z10 vs Ilbirs | Z10 58% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 10 | PR vs MOUZ | PR 64% | MOUZ | ✗ miss |
| Aug 10 | PR vs MOUZ | PR 69% | PR | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 10 | LV United vs Dark Rebell… | Dark Rebellion 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 10 | Dominion vs Elite Eclip… | Dominion 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 09 | RE`Arise vs Ilbirs | RE`Arise 52% | RE`Arise | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 09 | SpiritAc vs lvlUP | lvlUP 64% | pending | — |
| Aug 09 | Z10 vs NAVI | Z10 60% | NAVI | ✗ miss |
| Aug 09 | RE vs Ilbirs | RE 52% | RE | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 09 | NH vs FTS | NH 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 09 | LevelUP vs MOUZ | LevelUP 72% | LevelUP | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 09 | MOUZ vs LevelUP | LevelUP 64% | LevelUP | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 09 | YeS vs PR | YeS 50% | YeS | coin-flip |
| Aug 09 | PR vs YeS | PR 60% | YeS | ✗ miss |
| Aug 09 | YeS vs PR | PR 50% | PR | coin-flip |
| Aug 09 | Riftwalkers vs Wiser Warri… | Riftwalkers 55% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | lvlUP vs LYNX | lvlUP 69% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | AMG vs Jenz | AMG 63% | AMG | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | Jenz vs AMG | AMG 54% | AMG | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | Jenz vs Ilbirs | Ilbirs 64% | Ilbirs | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | FTS vs PC | PC 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | Jenz vs Ilbirs | Ilbirs 62% | Ilbirs | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | Ilbirs vs NH | Ilbirs 65% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | PR vs Team Synapse | PR 61% | PR | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 07 | PC vs LYNX | PC 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | Nemiga vs Jenz | Jenz 50% | Nemiga | coin-flip |
| Aug 07 | Jenz vs Nemiga | Jenz 61% | Nemiga | ✗ miss |
| Aug 07 | PR vs Jenz | Jenz 54% | PR | ✗ miss |
| Aug 07 | RE`Arise vs SpiritAc | RE`Arise 59% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | Jenz vs PR | Jenz 65% | PR | ✗ miss |
| Aug 07 | Team Syntax vs Ilbirs | Team Syntax 55% | Ilbirs | ✗ miss |
| Aug 07 | Team Syntax vs Ilbirs | Team Syntax 59% | Ilbirs | ✗ miss |
| Aug 07 | RE`Arise vs SpiritAc | RE`Arise 59% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | PC vs LYNX | PC 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | Ilbirs vs NH | Ilbirs 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | NH vs Z10 | Z10 59% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 06 | FTS vs Team Syntax | Team Syntax 56% | pending | — |