Patch-Aware
Elo with patch-boundary decay — stale form loses weight after Valve patches.
All-time accuracy
67.4%
186 / 276 settled
Last 50
56.0%
sliding window
Last 10
90.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.223
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.637
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$117.65 across 346 bets. ROI = +3.40%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 0 | — | |
| 60–70% | 218 | 62.8% (137/218) | |
| 70–80% | 56 | 83.9% (47/56) | |
| 80–90% | 2 | 100.0% (2/2) | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| LGD vs NAVI | NAVI 62% | 0.51 | |
| PV vs lvlUP | PV 63% | 0.33 | |
| TSpirit vs NMSS | TSpirit 67% | 0.90 | |
| LGD vs XG | LGD 63% | 0.51 | |
| 1w vs NAVI | NAVI 64% | 0.90 | |
| Liquid vs YB | Liquid 56% | 0.45 | |
| Aurora vs GL | Aurora 60% | 0.90 | |
| TY vs MOUZ | TY 69% | 0.90 | |
| BB vs OG | BB 64% | 0.90 | |
| BB vs OG | BB 59% | 0.30 | |
| Eye Gaming vs Shinigami Gam… | Eye Gaming 56% | 0.06 | |
| Shinigami Gam… vs Elite Eclipse | Elite Eclipse 59% | 0.06 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | LGD vs NAVI | NAVI 62% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | PV vs lvlUP | PV 63% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | TSpirit vs NMSS | TSpirit 67% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | LGD vs XG | LGD 63% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | 1w vs NAVI | NAVI 64% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Liquid vs YB | Liquid 56% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Aurora vs GL | Aurora 60% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | TY vs MOUZ | TY 69% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | BB vs OG | BB 64% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | BB vs OG | BB 59% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Eye Gaming vs Shinigami G… | Eye Gaming 56% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Shinigami G… vs Elite Eclip… | Elite Eclipse 59% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Balu vs Z10 | Z10 60% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Rostik vs avice | Rostik 56% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | XG vs NAVI | NAVI 69% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | LGD vs TY | TY 57% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 26 | NAVI vs XG | NAVI 75% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | YBN vs Team Daxak | Team Daxak 66% | Team Daxak | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | LGD vs TY | TY 55% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 26 | YBN vs Team Daxak | Team Daxak 64% | Team Daxak | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | LGD vs TY | TY 52% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 26 | Aurora vs NAVI | NAVI 63% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | XG vs GL | XG 53% | XG | coin-flip |
| Sep 26 | Aurora vs NAVI | NAVI 61% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | XG vs GL | XG 52% | XG | coin-flip |
| Sep 26 | GL vs XG | GL 58% | XG | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | Aurora vs TY | TY 54% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | Aurora vs TY | TY 53% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | XG vs LGD | LGD 60% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | XG vs LGD | XG 53% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | XG vs LGD | LGD 60% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | Rostik vs Stray | Rostik 60% | Stray | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | gpk vs Cake | Cake 55% | Cake | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | XG vs LGD | LGD 58% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | Cake vs gpk | Cake 67% | gpk | ✗ miss |
| Sep 25 | Stray vs Rostik | Rostik 57% | Stray | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | LGD vs XG | LGD 63% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | Synapse vs YeS | Synapse 58% | YeS | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | Aurora vs TY | TY 53% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | GL vs IW | GL 60% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | Team Solo vs avice | avice 57% | avice | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | avice vs Team Solo | avice 60% | avice | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | GL vs 1w | 1w 55% | GL | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | NMSS vs NAVI | NAVI 65% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | Shinigami G… vs Eye Gaming | Shinigami Gaming 51% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | GL vs 1w | 1w 57% | GL | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | Kinetix vs YG | YG 51% | YG | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | NMSS vs NAVI | NAVI 64% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | NMSS vs NAVI | NAVI 63% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | NMSS vs NAVI | NAVI 65% | NMSS | ✗ miss |
| Sep 24 | Team TpaBoM… vs Stray | Team TpaBoMaH 54% | Team TpaBoMaH | coin-flip |
| Sep 24 | YeS vs LYNX | YeS 59% | YeS | coin-flip |
| Sep 24 | Stray vs Team TpaBoM… | Stray 57% | Team TpaBoMaH | coin-flip |
| Sep 24 | Eye Gaming vs Shinigami G… | Eye Gaming 56% | pending | — |
| Sep 24 | Cake vs Team Solo | Cake 61% | Cake | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 24 | TY vs 1w | TY 60% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 24 | TY vs 1w | TY 58% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 24 | Cake vs Team Solo | Cake 57% | Cake | coin-flip |
| Sep 24 | 1w vs TY | 1w 51% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 24 | TM vs LYNX | TM 66% | LYNX | ✗ miss |