Phantom
High-conviction: only commits when Elo + WR10 strongly agree.
All-time accuracy
54.9%
50 / 91 settled
Last 50
58.0%
sliding window
Last 10
50.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.264
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.725
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be $-87.64 across 117 bets. ROI = -7.49%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 12 | 33.3% (4/12) | |
| 60–70% | 61 | 60.7% (37/61) | |
| 70–80% | 18 | 50.0% (9/18) | |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| OG vs XG | OG 57% | 0.20 | |
| OG vs XG | OG 57% | 0.20 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15 | OG vs XG | OG 57% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | OG vs XG | OG 57% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 65% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | NGX 64% | NGX | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | OG vs XG | OG 57% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | IW vs TY | TY 71% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs Aurora | Liquid 58% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 69% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 65% | Liquid | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | VSN vs TSpirit | VSN 60% | VSN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 68% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs GL | FLCN 66% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | VSN vs TSpirit | VSN 60% | VSN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 64% | Liquid | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TY vs Resilience | TY 67% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | TY vs Resilience | TY 64% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs GL | FLCN 67% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs GL | FLCN 67% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs TY | TY 72% | Resilience | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs XG | LGD 62% | XG | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs XG | LGD 62% | XG | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs TY | TY 67% | Resilience | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | TY vs Aurora | TY 66% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | Aurora vs TY | TY 65% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | Aurora vs TY | TY 63% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | TY vs Aurora | TY 66% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | Liquid vs TSpirit | Liquid 61% | TSpirit | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | IW vs FLCN | FLCN 58% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | Liquid vs TSpirit | Liquid 60% | TSpirit | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | IW vs FLCN | FLCN 61% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | Aurora vs TY | TY 63% | Aurora | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | IW vs FLCN | FLCN 61% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | VSN vs BB | VSN 65% | VSN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | Liquid vs TY | TY 63% | Liquid | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | TY vs Liquid | TY 64% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 14 | TY vs Liquid | TY 64% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | LGD vs Resilience | LGD 59% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | BB vs IW | BB 70% | BB | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | LGD vs Resilience | LGD 59% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | BB vs IW | BB 77% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 13 | GL vs Aurora | Aurora 67% | Aurora | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | Resilience vs LGD | LGD 57% | Resilience | ✗ miss |
| Aug 13 | BB vs IW | BB 74% | BB | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | TSpirit vs XG | TSpirit 67% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | TY vs HU | TY 67% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | TY vs HU | TY 65% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | Aurora vs GL | Aurora 67% | Aurora | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | Liquid vs VG | Liquid 68% | Liquid | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | Liquid vs VG | Liquid 68% | Liquid | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | TSpirit vs XG | TSpirit 67% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | Liquid vs VG | Liquid 69% | Liquid | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | XG vs TSpirit | TSpirit 67% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 13 | FLCN vs LGD | FLCN 59% | LGD | ✗ miss |
| Aug 13 | BB vs OG | BB 60% | pending | — |
| Aug 13 | NGX vs IW | NGX 69% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 12 | NAVI vs LevelUP | NAVI 74% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 12 | LevelUP vs NAVI | NAVI 68% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | IW vs NGX | NGX 58% | pending | — |
| Aug 10 | PR vs MOUZ | PR 61% | MOUZ | ✗ miss |
| Aug 10 | PR vs MOUZ | PR 63% | PR | ✓ HIT |