Roster Change
Penalty for unstable rosters — fresh lineups underperform Elo.
All-time accuracy
68.7%
167 / 243 settled
Last 50
64.0%
sliding window
Last 10
80.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.219
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.627
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$236.08 across 312 bets. ROI = +7.57%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 0 | — | |
| 60–70% | 212 | 65.6% (139/212) | |
| 70–80% | 29 | 89.7% (26/29) | |
| 80–90% | 2 | 100.0% (2/2) | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| YACHE123 vs Db | Db 63% | 0.03 | |
| LGD vs NAVI | NAVI 58% | 0.45 | |
| LGD vs NaVi | LGD 63% | 0.04 | |
| Ivory vs YACHE123 | Ivory 57% | 0.03 | |
| YACHE123 vs IAP | YACHE123 61% | 0.04 | |
| Pibbles vs White Sails | Pibbles 52% | 0.04 | |
| PV vs lvlUP | PV 53% | 0.18 | |
| TSpirit vs NMSS | TSpirit 60% | 0.80 | |
| LGD vs XG | LGD 59% | 0.45 | |
| 1w vs NAVI | NAVI 64% | 0.80 | |
| IW vs NaVi | IW 55% | 0.04 | |
| Liquid vs YB | Liquid 52% | 0.40 | |
| Aurora vs GL | Aurora 60% | 0.80 | |
| TY vs MOUZ | TY 69% | 0.80 | |
| BB vs OG | BB 61% | 0.80 | |
| BB vs OG | BB 58% | 0.27 | |
| Eye Gaming vs Shinigami Gam… | Eye Gaming 54% | 0.03 | |
| Leto vs Selva Esports | Leto 54% | 0.03 | |
| Shinigami Gam… vs Elite Eclipse | Shinigami Gaming 50% | 0.03 | |
| Pibbles vs Bociarnia | Pibbles 52% | 0.04 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | oveA vs Nether Force | oveA 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | NaVi vs XG | XG 53% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | HellNight- vs lvlUP | lvlUP 60% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | YACHE123 vs Db | Db 63% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | LGD vs NAVI | NAVI 58% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | LGD vs NaVi | LGD 63% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Ivory vs YACHE123 | Ivory 57% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | YACHE123 vs IAP | YACHE123 61% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Pibbles vs White Sails | Pibbles 52% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | PV vs lvlUP | PV 53% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | TSpirit vs NMSS | TSpirit 60% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | LGD vs XG | LGD 59% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | 1w vs NAVI | NAVI 64% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | IW vs NaVi | IW 55% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Liquid vs YB | Liquid 52% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Aurora vs GL | Aurora 60% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | TY vs MOUZ | TY 69% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | BB vs OG | BB 61% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | BB vs OG | BB 58% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Eye Gaming vs Shinigami G… | Eye Gaming 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Leto vs Selva Espor… | Leto 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Shinigami G… vs Elite Eclip… | Shinigami Gaming 50% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Pibbles vs Bociarnia | Pibbles 52% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Waffle Warr… vs Selva Sports | Waffle Warriors 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Balu vs Z10 | Z10 58% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Rostik vs avice | Rostik 56% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | XG vs NAVI | NAVI 69% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | Aurora vs NaVi | Aurora 67% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | All of Engl… vs Leto | All of England 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | LGD vs TY | TY 55% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 26 | NAVI vs XG | NAVI 75% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | YBN vs Team Daxak | Team Daxak 66% | Team Daxak | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | LGD vs TY | TY 53% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 26 | YBN vs Team Daxak | Team Daxak 63% | Team Daxak | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | LGD vs TY | TY 51% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 26 | Aurora vs NAVI | NAVI 63% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | XG vs GL | XG 53% | XG | coin-flip |
| Sep 26 | YG vs YACHE123 | YG 51% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Aurora vs NAVI | NAVI 61% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | XG vs GL | XG 52% | XG | coin-flip |
| Sep 26 | Db vs CD | Db 69% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | GL vs XG | GL 57% | XG | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | Autumn vs Devil Kings | Autumn 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | Prime Time vs Secret Five | Prime Time 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | Waffle Warr… vs Selva Sports | Waffle Warriors 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | Egoisto vs potn9ki | Egoisto 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | Subcontinen… vs Bociarnia | Subcontinent Unite 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | Aurora vs TY | TY 54% | TY | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | Pibbles vs White Sails | Pibbles 52% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | Chand vs Opergroup | Chand 55% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | Secret Five vs Team Blue | Secret Five 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | All of Engl… vs Leto | All of England 54% | pending | — |
| Sep 25 | Aurora vs TY | TY 53% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | XG vs LGD | LGD 57% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | XG vs LGD | XG 54% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | XG vs LGD | LGD 57% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | Rostik vs Stray | Rostik 60% | Stray | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | gpk vs Cake | Cake 55% | Cake | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | XG vs LGD | LGD 55% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Sep 25 | Cake vs gpk | Cake 67% | gpk | ✗ miss |