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Roster Change

Penalty for unstable rosters — fresh lineups underperform Elo.

All-time accuracy

69.8%

30 / 43 settled

Last 50

69.8%

sliding window

Last 10

50.0%

most recent

Brier score

0.203

lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)

Log-loss

0.595

lower = better

Simulated bankroll

If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$63.35 across 43 bets. ROI = +14.73%.

Calibration by confidence

When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.

Confidence range	Picks	Accuracy
50–60%	24	58.3% (14/24)
60–70%	14	78.6% (11/14)
70–80%	5	100.0% (5/5)
80–90%	0	—
90–101%	0	—

Upcoming picks

Match	This model picks	Confidence
TBD vs Hokori	TBD 51%	0.04
TeamDk vs Hokori	TeamDk 53%	0.24
Gotto H vs TBD	Gotto H 54%	0.03
Carstensz vs TBD	Carstensz 57%	0.04
Carstensz vs MM	Carstensz 57%	0.04
Db vs TBD	Db 54%	0.03
VP vs TBD	VP 54%	0.03
VP vs HU	VP 52%	0.04
ALOHA vs VDSh	ALOHA 54%	0.03
Stariy vs LenS Team	Stariy 54%	0.03
NGX vs TBD	NGX 54%	0.04
NGX vs YeS	YeS 53%	0.04
by_Owl vs LenS Team	by_Owl 54%	0.03
by_Owl vs ALOHA	by_Owl 54%	0.03
Stariy vs by_Owl	Stariy 54%	0.03
ALOHA vs VDSh	ALOHA 54%	0.03
EB vs TBD	EB 61%	0.04

Recent picks (60)

When	Match	Pick	Outcome	Result
Jun 27	TBD vs Gotto H	TBD 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	EB vs Gotto H	EB 61%	pending	—
Jun 27	TBD vs Hokori	TBD 51%	pending	—
Jun 27	TeamDk vs Hokori	TeamDk 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	Gotto H vs TBD	Gotto H 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	Carstensz vs TBD	Carstensz 57%	pending	—
Jun 27	Carstensz vs MM	Carstensz 57%	pending	—
Jun 27	Db vs TBD	Db 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	VP vs TBD	VP 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	VP vs HU	VP 52%	pending	—
Jun 27	ALOHA vs VDSh	ALOHA 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	Stariy vs LenS Team	Stariy 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	NGX vs TBD	NGX 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	NGX vs YeS	YeS 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	by_Owl vs LenS Team	by_Owl 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	by_Owl vs ALOHA	by_Owl 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	Stariy vs by_Owl	Stariy 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	ALOHA vs VDSh	ALOHA 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	EB vs TBD	EB 61%	pending	—
Jun 27	TBD vs YeS	YeS 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	PR vs YeS	YeS 52%	YeS	coin-flip
Jun 27	TBD vs HU	TBD 52%	pending	—
Jun 27	NAVI vs HU	NAVI 54%	HU	✗ miss
Jun 27	IAP vs WinteR	IAP 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	Resilience vs YB	Resilience 64%	Resilience	✓ HIT
Jun 27	Ivory vs MM	Ivory 57%	pending	—
Jun 27	VP.P vs 4iki	VP.P 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	TBD vs VG	VG 52%	pending	—
Jun 27	YB vs VG	YB 50%	VG	coin-flip
Jun 27	SpiritAc vs Bear	SpiritAc 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	AMG vs EB	AMG 52%	AMG	✓ HIT
Jun 27	Z10 vs Flame	Z10 64%	pending	—
Jun 27	TBD vs RHCP	TBD 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	NMSS vs RHCP	NMSS 66%	pending	—
Jun 27	PR vs Hive	PR 57%	pending	—
Jun 27	NMSS vs RHCP	NMSS 66%	pending	—
Jun 27	LGD vs TBD	LGD 73%	pending	—
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 66%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 66%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 66%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	TBD vs AMG	AMG 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	TBD vs AMG	AMG 53%	pending	—
Jun 27	NMSS vs AMG	NMSS 61%	AMG	✗ miss
Jun 27	NMSS vs AMG	NMSS 61%	AMG	✗ miss
Jun 27	Grind vs MM	Grind 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	NMSS vs AMG	NMSS 61%	AMG	✗ miss
Jun 27	YG vs IAP	YG 54%	IAP	✗ miss
Jun 27	XctN vs Carstensz	XctN 50%	XctN	coin-flip
Jun 27	SpiritAc vs Hive	SpiritAc 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	GLYPH vs Db	GLYPH 51%	GLYPH	coin-flip
Jun 27	Z10 vs VP.P	Z10 64%	pending	—
Jun 27	Flame vs 4iki	Flame 54%	pending	—
Jun 27	PlayTime vs TBD	PlayTime 61%	pending	—
Jun 27	PlayTime vs AMG	PlayTime 55%	PlayTime	✓ HIT
Jun 27	Bear vs PR	Bear 50%	pending	—
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 66%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	LGD vs TBD	LGD 73%	pending	—
Jun 27	LGD vs PlayTime	LGD 66%	LGD	✓ HIT
Jun 27	Carstensz vs YG	Carstensz 57%	Carstensz	✓ HIT
Jun 27	Db vs MM	Db 54%	MM	✗ miss