Roster Change
Penalty for unstable rosters — fresh lineups underperform Elo.
All-time accuracy
61.9%
120 / 194 settled
Last 50
62.0%
sliding window
Last 10
70.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.229
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.650
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$278.83 across 379 bets. ROI = +7.36%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 123 | 55.3% (68/123) | |
| 60–70% | 63 | 71.4% (45/63) | |
| 70–80% | 8 | 87.5% (7/8) | |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLCN vs LGD | FLCN 62% | 0.80 | |
| PARIVISION vs Resilience | Resilience 58% | 0.03 | |
| BetBoom Team vs OG | OG 53% | 0.03 | |
| 1win Team vs NGX | NGX 54% | 0.03 | |
| BB vs OG | BB 53% | 0.08 | |
| VSN vs Resilience | VSN 52% | 0.33 | |
| NGX vs IW | NGX 65% | 0.40 | |
| TSpirit vs XG | TSpirit 63% | 0.80 | |
| Liquid vs VG | Liquid 56% | 0.80 | |
| Aurora vs GL | Aurora 61% | 0.80 | |
| TY vs HU | TY 69% | 0.35 | |
| TY vs L1 | TY 73% | 0.03 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | FLCN vs LGD | FLCN 62% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | PARIVISION vs Resilience | Resilience 58% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | BetBoom Team vs OG | OG 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | 1win Team vs NGX | NGX 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | BB vs OG | BB 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | VSN vs Resilience | VSN 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | NGX vs IW | NGX 65% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | TSpirit vs XG | TSpirit 63% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | Liquid vs VG | Liquid 56% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | Aurora vs GL | Aurora 61% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | TY vs HU | TY 69% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | TY vs L1 | TY 73% | pending | — |
| Aug 12 | RE vs LevelUP | RE 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 11 | lvlUP vs SpiritAc | lvlUP 69% | lvlUP | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | Z10 vs YeS | Z10 61% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | SpiritAc vs NH | SpiritAc 59% | SpiritAc | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | Z10 vs YeS | Z10 59% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | MOUZ vs RE | RE 53% | RE | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 11 | IW vs NGX | NGX 58% | pending | — |
| Aug 11 | MOUZ vs RE | RE 52% | MOUZ | coin-flip |
| Aug 11 | LevelUP vs NAVI | LevelUP 54% | NAVI | ✗ miss |
| Aug 11 | Vitality Wa… vs FLYING FORT… | Vitality Warriors 55% | pending | — |
| Aug 11 | Moonlight W… vs Freedom Fig… | Moonlight Wispers 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 10 | YeS vs LevelUP | LevelUP 52% | LevelUP | coin-flip |
| Aug 10 | LYNX vs RE`Arise | LYNX 51% | RE`Arise | coin-flip |
| Aug 10 | YeS vs LevelUP | YeS 51% | LevelUP | coin-flip |
| Aug 10 | YeS vs LevelUP | LevelUP 52% | YeS | ✗ miss |
| Aug 10 | Z10 vs Ilbirs | Z10 60% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 10 | Z10 vs Ilbirs | Z10 58% | Z10 | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 10 | PR vs MOUZ | PR 64% | MOUZ | ✗ miss |
| Aug 10 | PR vs MOUZ | PR 68% | PR | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 10 | LV United vs Dark Rebell… | LV United 50% | pending | — |
| Aug 10 | Dominion vs Elite Eclip… | Dominion 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 10 | Moonlight W… vs Prime Legion | Moonlight Wispers 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 10 | Project Ach… vs Freedom Fig… | Project Achilles 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 09 | RE`Arise vs Ilbirs | RE`Arise 52% | RE`Arise | coin-flip |
| Aug 09 | SpiritAc vs lvlUP | lvlUP 63% | pending | — |
| Aug 09 | Z10 vs NAVI | Z10 56% | NAVI | ✗ miss |
| Aug 09 | RE vs Ilbirs | RE 52% | RE | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 09 | NH vs FTS | NH 51% | pending | — |
| Aug 09 | Ilbirs vs RE | Ilbirs 60% | RE | ✗ miss |
| Aug 09 | LevelUP vs MOUZ | LevelUP 69% | LevelUP | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 09 | MOUZ vs LevelUP | LevelUP 63% | LevelUP | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 09 | YeS vs PR | YeS 50% | YeS | coin-flip |
| Aug 09 | PR vs YeS | PR 60% | YeS | ✗ miss |
| Aug 09 | YeS vs PR | PR 50% | PR | coin-flip |
| Aug 09 | Riftwalkers vs Wiser Warri… | Riftwalkers 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 09 | Freedom Fig… vs Moonlight W… | Freedom Fighters Team 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | lvlUP vs LYNX | lvlUP 69% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | AMG vs Jenz | AMG 62% | AMG | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | Jenz vs AMG | AMG 54% | AMG | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | Jenz vs Ilbirs | Ilbirs 64% | Ilbirs | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | FTS vs PC | PC 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | Jenz vs Ilbirs | Ilbirs 62% | Ilbirs | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | Ilbirs vs NH | Ilbirs 65% | pending | — |
| Aug 08 | PR vs Team Synapse | PR 61% | PR | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 08 | Team Synapse vs PR | Team Synapse 55% | PR | ✗ miss |
| Aug 08 | Freedom Fig… vs Moonlight W… | Freedom Fighters Team 54% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | PC vs LYNX | PC 53% | pending | — |
| Aug 07 | FTS vs lvlUP | FTS 50% | pending | — |