Tier Elo
Elo computed only from matches against top-30 teams.
All-time accuracy
75.0%
9 / 12 settled
Last 50
75.0%
sliding window
Last 10
70.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.204
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.597
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$18.95 across 12 bets. ROI = +15.79%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 1 | 100.0% (1/1) | |
| 60–70% | 9 | 66.7% (6/9) | |
| 70–80% | 2 | 100.0% (2/2) | |
| 80–90% | 0 | — | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEX vs CUB | CUB 63% | 0.13 |
Recent picks (18)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 01 | CUB vs CRI | CUB 77% | pending | — |
| Jul 01 | MEX vs CUB | CUB 63% | pending | — |
| Jul 01 | CUB vs PAN | CUB 76% | CUB | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | PR vs YeS | YeS 62% | YeS | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | Resilience vs YB | Resilience 78% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | AMG vs EB | AMG 50% | AMG | coin-flip |
| Jun 27 | LGD vs PlayTime | LGD 64% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | LGD vs PlayTime | LGD 64% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | LGD vs PlayTime | LGD 64% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | NMSS vs AMG | NMSS 67% | AMG | ✗ miss |
| Jun 27 | NMSS vs AMG | NMSS 67% | AMG | ✗ miss |
| Jun 27 | NMSS vs AMG | NMSS 67% | AMG | ✗ miss |
| Jun 27 | PlayTime vs AMG | PlayTime 55% | PlayTime | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | LGD vs PlayTime | LGD 64% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | LGD vs PlayTime | LGD 64% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Jun 27 | EB vs AMG | EB 50% | pending | — |
| Jun 27 | EB vs AMG | EB 50% | pending | — |
| Jun 27 | EB vs AMG | EB 50% | pending | — |