Tier Elo
Elo computed only from matches against top-30 teams.
All-time accuracy
53.1%
113 / 213 settled
Last 50
48.0%
sliding window
Last 10
30.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.279
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.762
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be $-318.45 across 277 bets. ROI = -11.50%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 64 | 54.7% (35/64) | |
| 60–70% | 93 | 51.6% (48/93) | |
| 70–80% | 44 | 50.0% (22/44) | |
| 80–90% | 12 | 66.7% (8/12) | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLCN vs VG | FLCN 67% | 1.00 | |
| TSpirit vs Resilience | Resilience 60% | 1.00 | |
| IW vs GL | IW 86% | 0.80 | |
| LGD vs TY | TY 60% | 1.00 | |
| Resilience vs GL | Resilience 91% | 0.80 | |
| OG vs XG | OG 52% | 1.00 | |
| Resilience vs GL | Resilience 91% | 0.80 | |
| OG vs XG | OG 52% | 1.00 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs VG | FLCN 67% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | TSpirit vs Resilience | Resilience 60% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | IW vs GL | IW 86% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs TY | TY 60% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 91% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | OG vs XG | OG 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 91% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | OG vs XG | OG 52% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 65% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs Liquid | Aurora 51% | Liquid | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | TSpirit 51% | NGX | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | TSpirit 53% | NGX | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs GL | Resilience 91% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | OG vs XG | OG 50% | pending | — |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | FLCN 51% | FLCN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs TSpirit | TSpirit 53% | NGX | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs Aurora | Aurora 51% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | IW vs TY | TY 68% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs Aurora | Aurora 50% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | FLCN 52% | BB | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs Liquid | Aurora 50% | Aurora | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | TY vs IW | TY 68% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | BB vs FLCN | BB 55% | FLCN | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs BB | FLCN 51% | FLCN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs VG | LGD 65% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | XG vs Resilience | Resilience 61% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | OG vs GL | OG 77% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs XG | Resilience 73% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | VG vs LGD | LGD 65% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | GL vs OG | OG 77% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs XG | Resilience 60% | Resilience | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 61% | Liquid | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Aurora vs BB | BB 54% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | VSN vs TSpirit | VSN 51% | VSN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 62% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 65% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TSpirit vs VSN | VSN 51% | VSN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | BB vs Aurora | BB 56% | Aurora | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 57% | IW | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | VG vs NGX | NGX 67% | NGX | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs GL | FLCN 87% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs XG | LGD 64% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | HU vs OG | HU 57% | OG | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | VSN vs TSpirit | VSN 51% | VSN | coin-flip |
| Aug 15 | Liquid vs IW | Liquid 57% | Liquid | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | TY vs Resilience | TY 64% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | NGX vs VG | NGX 67% | NGX | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | HU vs OG | HU 57% | HU | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs XG | LGD 64% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | TY vs Resilience | TY 60% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs GL | FLCN 87% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | FLCN vs GL | FLCN 87% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs TY | TY 53% | Resilience | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | OG vs HU | HU 57% | OG | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs XG | LGD 64% | XG | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | HU vs OG | HU 57% | OG | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | GL vs FLCN | FLCN 87% | FLCN | ✓ HIT |
| Aug 15 | LGD vs XG | LGD 64% | XG | ✗ miss |
| Aug 15 | Resilience vs TY | TY 66% | Resilience | ✗ miss |
| Aug 14 | TY vs Aurora | TY 64% | Aurora | ✗ miss |