Tier Elo
Elo computed only from matches against top-30 teams.
All-time accuracy
61.0%
197 / 323 settled
Last 50
68.0%
sliding window
Last 10
50.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.255
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.710
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be $-458.82 across 378 bets. ROI = -12.14%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 0 | — | |
| 60–70% | 155 | 59.4% (92/155) | |
| 70–80% | 104 | 51.0% (53/104) | |
| 80–90% | 62 | 82.3% (51/62) | |
| 90–101% | 2 | 50.0% (1/2) |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Synapse vs YeS | Synapse 56% | 0.60 | |
| LGD vs TSpirit | TSpirit 55% | 1.00 | |
| TY vs LGD | TY 57% | 1.00 | |
| Aurora vs 1w | Aurora 56% | 1.00 | |
| Aurora vs IW | Aurora 58% | 1.00 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 06 | Synapse vs YeS | Synapse 56% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | LGD vs TSpirit | TSpirit 55% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | TY vs LGD | TY 57% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | Aurora vs 1w | Aurora 56% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | Aurora vs IW | Aurora 58% | pending | — |
| Oct 05 | MOUZ vs Nemiga | Nemiga 65% | MOUZ | ✗ miss |
| Oct 05 | MOUZ vs Nemiga | Nemiga 65% | MOUZ | ✗ miss |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs Z10 | Synapse 78% | pending | — |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs HU | Synapse 85% | Synapse | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs HU | Synapse 85% | Synapse | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs HU | Synapse 85% | Synapse | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 04 | Z10 vs Hokori | Hokori 60% | pending | — |
| Oct 03 | IW vs OG | IW 55% | pending | — |
| Oct 03 | TSpirit vs TY | TY 53% | TY | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | TSpirit vs TY | TY 53% | TSpirit | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | daxao vs Cake | Cake 53% | Cake | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | TY vs TSpirit | TY 52% | TY | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | daxao vs Cake | daxao 72% | Cake | ✗ miss |
| Oct 03 | LGD vs GL | LGD 70% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 03 | OG vs 1w | 1w 57% | OG | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | LGD vs GL | LGD 69% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Oct 03 | PV vs Aurora | PV 61% | PV | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | OG vs 1w | 1w 57% | 1w | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | GL vs LGD | LGD 72% | LGD | ✗ miss |
| Oct 03 | daxao vs Cake | daxao 68% | daxao | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 03 | PV vs Aurora | PV 61% | PV | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | LGD vs GL | LGD 74% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Oct 03 | Aurora vs PV | PV 60% | PV | coin-flip |
| Oct 03 | Rostik vs Cake | Rostik 50% | Cake | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | OG vs BB | OG 54% | pending | — |
| Oct 02 | OG vs BETBOOM | BETBOOM 55% | BETBOOM | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | NMSS vs IW | IW 53% | pending | — |
| Oct 02 | OG vs BETBOOM | BETBOOM 55% | BETBOOM | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | GL vs Liquid | Liquid 63% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Oct 02 | Liquid vs GL | Liquid 63% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Oct 02 | LGD vs XG | LGD 65% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 02 | NMSS vs 1w | 1w 55% | 1w | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | NMSS vs 1w | 1w 55% | 1w | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | XG vs LGD | LGD 66% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 02 | LGD vs XG | LGD 50% | LGD | coin-flip |
| Oct 02 | NMSS vs 1w | 1w 55% | 1w | coin-flip |
| Oct 01 | Hokori vs Synapse | Synapse 70% | pending | — |
| Oct 01 | TY vs BB | TY 73% | pending | — |
| Oct 01 | Aurora vs Liquid | Aurora 64% | Liquid | ✗ miss |
| Oct 01 | GL vs YB | YB 54% | GL | coin-flip |
| Oct 01 | YB vs GL | YB 54% | GL | coin-flip |
| Oct 01 | Aurora vs Liquid | Aurora 64% | Liquid | ✗ miss |
| Oct 01 | TY vs BETBOOM | TY 65% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 01 | MOUZ vs OG | OG 68% | OG | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 01 | OG vs MOUZ | OG 67% | OG | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 01 | BETBOOM vs TY | TY 56% | TY | coin-flip |
| Oct 01 | BETBOOM vs TY | TY 55% | TY | coin-flip |
| Oct 01 | MOUZ vs OG | OG 67% | OG | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | TSpirit vs IW | TSpirit 64% | pending | — |
| Sep 30 | PV vs LGD | PV 62% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | lvlUP vs XG | lvlUP 78% | XG | ✗ miss |
| Sep 30 | PV vs LGD | PV 75% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | PV vs LGD | PV 74% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | LGD vs PV | PV 60% | PV | coin-flip |
| Sep 30 | PV vs LGD | PV 59% | PV | coin-flip |