Vanguard
META: fires only when Elo and WR10 strongly agree (>60% same side).
All-time accuracy
73.9%
113 / 153 settled
Last 50
80.0%
sliding window
Last 10
100.0%
most recent
Brier score
0.206
lower = better (0.25 = coin flip)
Log-loss
0.599
lower = better
Simulated bankroll
If you'd staked $10 on every prediction at fair odds (1/probability, no bookie vig), your P&L would be +$129.44 across 172 bets. ROI = +7.53%.
Calibration by confidence
When the model says 80%, is it actually right 80% of the time? Well-calibrated models have accuracy that matches confidence range.
| Confidence range | Picks | Accuracy | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 0 | — | |
| 60–70% | 93 | 66.7% (62/93) | |
| 70–80% | 55 | 83.6% (46/55) | |
| 80–90% | 5 | 100.0% (5/5) | |
| 90–101% | 0 | — |
Upcoming picks
| When | Match | This model picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| LGD vs TSpirit | TSpirit 68% | 1.00 | |
| TY vs LGD | TY 72% | 0.97 |
Recent picks (60)
| When | Match | Pick | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 06 | LGD vs TSpirit | TSpirit 68% | pending | — |
| Oct 06 | TY vs LGD | TY 72% | pending | — |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs Z10 | Synapse 73% | pending | — |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs HU | Synapse 79% | Synapse | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs HU | Synapse 78% | Synapse | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 05 | Synapse vs HU | Synapse 76% | Synapse | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 03 | PV vs Aurora | PV 73% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 03 | PV vs Aurora | PV 72% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 03 | Aurora vs PV | PV 67% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 01 | Hokori vs Synapse | Synapse 74% | pending | — |
| Oct 01 | TY vs BB | TY 80% | pending | — |
| Oct 01 | TY vs BETBOOM | TY 74% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 01 | BETBOOM vs TY | TY 69% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Oct 01 | BETBOOM vs TY | TY 68% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | TSpirit vs IW | TSpirit 73% | pending | — |
| Sep 30 | PV vs LGD | PV 73% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | lvlUP vs XG | lvlUP 67% | XG | ✗ miss |
| Sep 30 | PV vs LGD | PV 72% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | PV vs LGD | PV 72% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | LGD vs PV | PV 67% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | PV vs LGD | PV 68% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | TSpirit vs 1w | TSpirit 65% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | TY vs MOUZ | TY 78% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | 1w vs TSpirit | TSpirit 65% | TSpirit | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | MOUZ vs TY | TY 74% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 30 | MOUZ vs TY | TY 73% | TY | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 29 | 1w vs NAVI | NAVI 62% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 29 | NAVI vs 1w | NAVI 62% | 1w | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 29 | TSpirit vs NMSS | TSpirit 66% | NMSS | ✗ miss |
| Sep 29 | PV vs LevelUP | PV 81% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 29 | PV vs LevelUP | PV 73% | PV | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 27 | LGD vs NAVI | NAVI 61% | NAVI | coin-flip |
| Sep 27 | LGD vs NAVI | NAVI 63% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 27 | LGD vs NAVI | NAVI 63% | LGD | ✗ miss |
| Sep 27 | LGD vs NAVI | NAVI 61% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | XG vs NAVI | NAVI 69% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | NAVI vs XG | NAVI 72% | pending | — |
| Sep 26 | Aurora vs NAVI | NAVI 64% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 26 | Aurora vs NAVI | NAVI 62% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | XG vs LGD | LGD 62% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | XG vs LGD | LGD 62% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | LGD vs XG | LGD 66% | LGD | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | NMSS vs NAVI | NAVI 66% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | NMSS vs NAVI | NAVI 65% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | NMSS vs NAVI | NAVI 64% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 25 | NMSS vs NAVI | NAVI 66% | NMSS | ✗ miss |
| Sep 24 | Aurora vs GL | Aurora 66% | Aurora | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 24 | Aurora vs GL | Aurora 64% | Aurora | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 24 | GL vs Aurora | Aurora 64% | Aurora | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 22 | NAVI vs 1w | NAVI 70% | 1w | ✗ miss |
| Sep 22 | NAVI vs 1w | NAVI 76% | 1w | ✗ miss |
| Sep 21 | YeS vs LYNX | YeS 66% | LYNX | ✗ miss |
| Sep 21 | TY vs NAVI | NAVI 62% | TY | ✗ miss |
| Sep 21 | TY vs NAVI | NAVI 62% | TY | ✗ miss |
| Sep 21 | Synapse vs SpiritAc | Synapse 68% | Synapse | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 21 | NMSS vs MOUZ | NMSS 67% | NMSS | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 21 | MOUZ vs NMSS | NMSS 63% | NMSS | ✓ HIT |
| Sep 21 | PIPS vs GL | PIPS 68% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Sep 21 | GL vs PIPS | PIPS 66% | GL | ✗ miss |
| Sep 20 | Aurora vs NAVI | NAVI 66% | NAVI | ✓ HIT |